Part I: Basic issues and alternative models -- Stock prices and social dynamics -- Fashions, fads, and bubbles in financial markets -- Part II: The stock market -- Overview -- Stock market volatility : an introductory survey -- Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? -- The use of volatility measures in assessing market efficiency -- The probability of gross violations of a present value variance inequality -- Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends (with John Y. Campbell) -- The dividend ratio model and small sample bias : a Monte Carlo study (with John Y. Campbell) -- Comovements in stock prices and comovements in dividends -- Factors and fundamentals -- Part III: The bond market -- Overview -- Bond market volatility : an introductory survey -- The Gibson paradox and historical movements in real interest rates -- The volatility of long-term interest rates and expectations models of the term structure -- Cointegration and tests of present value models (with John Y. Campbell) -- Part IV: The real estate market -- Overview -- The efficiency of the market for single family homes (with Karl E. Case) -- Part V: The aggregate economy -- Overview -- Ultimate sources of aggregate variability -- The determinants of the variability of stock market prices -- Part VI: Popular models and investor behavior -- Overview -- Investor behavior in the October 1987 stock market crash : survey evidence -- The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets (with Karl E. Case) -- Concluding notes -- Data series.
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