After the cold war ended in 1989, American hopes for a new world order were quickly disappointed. A wave of violence soon erupted, engulfing regions from Rwanda and Somalia to Chechnya and Bosnia. These ʺclashes of civilizations, ʺ fundamentalist jihads and ethnic massacres appeared to be more savage and less rational than had been the long twilight struggle with the former Soviet Union. In an effort to understand these post-cold war conflicts and to advise the government on how to deal with them, a new school of foreign policy thought developed. Dubbed ʼchaos theory, ʼ it argues that the much-heralded processes of globalization are actually breeding a reaction of irrational violence. Thus, the spread of Western cultural icons through new electronic media often shocks and offends moral sensibilities in traditional societies. The explosive growth of international commerce ahs triggered a wave of migration and urbanization that throws together people from different cultures and fertilizes xenophobia. Chaos theory has already won converts in the U.S. military, the intelligence community and the foreign service. It has influenced an array of policies, particularly during the U.S. engagement in Bosnia.
But chaos theory is mostly wrong. In this book, Yahya Sadowski outlines the growth of chaos theory and its growing influence, and then provides a thorough empirical critique. Using detailed studies of Bosnia and global comparisons, he shows that globalization has not played a decisive role in fueling recent conflicts. Indeed, journalistsʼ impressions notwithstanding, there is no evidence that warfare has become more savage or even more frequent since 1989. The advocates of chaos theory are thus urging the United States to invest in preparing for a threat that is largely mythical-a strategy that is at least wasteful and potentially dangerous. The author argues that the most useful tools for preventing or prosecuting post-cold war conflicts remain the same ones that worked in the recent past: crafty diplomacy, conventional military preparedness and expanded support for economic development. Includes information on Afghanistan, Africa, Argentina, Asia, Azerbaijan, Balkans, Bosnian conflict, China, conflict models, culture conflicts, Eastern Europe, Europe, Germany, Islam, Japan, Latin America, Malaysia, Middle East, Russia, Rwanda, Serbs, Singapore, Slovenia, Somalia, Syria, United Nations, United States, warfare, Western Europe, Yugoslavia, etc.
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